Memo #117
(The third Memo from the Theme, Asia at the 2011 Cannes G20)
By Hugo Dobson – h.dobson [at] shef.ac.uk
Amid the attention inevitably placed on the Euro-zone crisis at the G20 summit in Cannes, France, there is one aspect of summitry that is often overlooked but is a background motivation for all summiteers, particularly the host. Namely, attempting to use a successful summit to potentially boost approval ratings, often with an upcoming election in mind, by displaying statesmanlike qualities on a global stage.
This has been the case from Gerald Ford’s calling of the G7 San Juan meeting in 1976 through to Gordon Brown’s G20 London Summit in 2009. The happy coincidence of hosting a global summit with upcoming presidential elections in mind is no doubt currently in the minds of Nicholas Sarkozy and Barack Obama.
Unsurprisingly, Japanese prime ministers have been no different. Former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone ruminated in his memoirs on the possible impact of his active role in G7 summits, and even strategically prominent positions in the official photographs, on his approval ratings.
The newly appointed incumbent, Yoshihiko Noda, arrived in Cannes at a time when his approval ratings were either stabilizing, according to the Nihon Keizai Shinbun or in decline, according to the Mainichi Shinbun. The honeymoon period appears to be over and now is a good time, one might think, to exploit the tailwind of a successful summit performance.
But history suggests a different story. When comparing opinion polls before and after summits, it is true that some Japanese prime ministers have enjoyed an increase in approval ratings and a decrease in disapproval ratings. But many found this to be short-lived, experienced the reverse, or saw an increase in their approval ratings only for it to be mediated by an increase in their disapproval ratings.
The question is not whether a successful summit performance can impact a leader’s approval ratings. Rather, why do leaders continue to perceive it this way? Maybe Noda has learned this lesson as he arrives in Cannes ready to commit to an unpopular increase in the consumption tax from five to ten per cent by around 2015.
About the Author:
Hugo Dobson – Professor, National Institute of Japanese Studies and School of East Asian Studies, The University of Sheffield.
Links:
- G20 Information Centre, G20 Research Group, University of Toronto.
- G8 Information Centre, G8 Research Group, University of Toronto.
Related Memos:
- Theme: Asia at the 2011 Cannes G20
- Sino-European Hope for the G20 in 2011 (Memo #63, by Yves Tiberghien). Translation in French available.