Is China the Next Domino?

By Asia Pacific Memo on February 25, 2011

Memo #59 (Part 2)

*See Part 1 of Memo #59 by Earl Drake*

Daniel Bell – daniel.a.bell [at] gmail.com

Authoritarian regimes seem to be crumbling almost daily. Will China go the way of Middle Eastern dictatorships?

The similarities are obvious. China relies on harsh measures to put down calls for democratic reform. And it is plagued by a huge gap between rich and poor, rampant corruption, rising prices of basic food stuffs, and high unemployment among recent university graduates.

But the differences are equally obvious. China is not ruled by a family and hence there is no clear source of blame. Most Chinese people (according to survey data) blame lower level officials for social problems, not the central level. Also, there are opportunities for social mobility (via education and/or entrepreneurship) that seem to be lacking in Egypt et al. And let’s not forget that 10% growth rates can lead to a more intangible sense of pride and confidence.

So calls for political change are not likely to be as pressing or revolutionary as in the Middle East. What about the normative question of what kind of change is most appropriate for China? Here too, there are key differences. In Egypt, for example, critics seem to largely agree on the need for free and fair elections to choose the country’s top political leaders.

Inside China, some like Liu Xiaobo, call for multi-party democracy. But most social reformers do not.  Some pessimists worry about the possible consequences of a transition to democratic rule: chaos followed by strongman rule. Optimists argue for political alternatives that may work better than Western-style democracy, such as a democratic house that would represent the interests of workers and farmers complemented by a house of government that would represent future generations and other non-voters who are affected by the policies of the government.

Let’s hope that democracy works well in the Middle East. In China there is a need to humanize government.  But outside forces need to listen to social reformers before siding with the democrats.

A human rights agenda need not include support for full electoral democracy.

About the Author:

Daniel Bell is the Zhiyuan Chair Professor of Arts and Humanities at Shanghai Jiaotong University and professor of political theory and director of the Centre for International and Comparative Political Theory at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

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