Memo #19
By: Ted Chen
On August 17th, 2010, the Taiwanese legislature passed the “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement” (ECFA). This is an agreement between Taipei and Beijing, signed on June 29th, 2010, towards creating a cross-Strait free trade agreement. Some see economic integration as the precursor to political integration. But even after the ECFA’s successful ratification, the electoral strategies of Taiwanese political parties make cross-Strait normalization far from a forgone conclusion.
Negotiations are incomplete. As the ECFA is a framework agreement, the content in the Free Trade Agreement has not been negotiated. Furthermore, Article 16 of the agreement allows for unilateral termination, adding further uncertainty to the situation.
Since the ECFA’s introduction, the debate surrounding it has been marked by the pervasive claim that the very survival of Taiwan is at stake. The opponents, the pan-green coalition led by the Democratic Progressive Party, claim that the ECFA places Taiwan in danger of encroachment from the Mainland. Proponents of the ECFA, the pan-blue coalition led by the Kuomintang, claim that without it Taiwan will be in danger of economic marginalization.
By framing the ECFA as a security threat, both camps are attempting to use fear to consolidate their electoral base. While this strategy is politically expedient in the short term, it is paralyzing in the long term on both domestic and inter-state levels.
First, by building their platforms on the existential threat of economic collapse on the one hand and loss of independence on the other, both blue and green camps have little room to compromise. If there is indeed an existential threat as they claim, how can they waver from their respective positions? Second, while Beijing has refrained from commenting on the political debate in Taiwan so far, if the pan-green camp comes to power and continues to frame ECFA as a security threat, the political good will built during the Ma administration will be upset and may place cross-Strait relations in deadlock once again.
Constrained by their electoral strategy, the elected side will have difficulty formulating an agreement that is acceptable to both the Taiwan public and Beijing. It bears watching to see if that camp can avoid falling into the deep hole it has dug.
About the Author:
Ted Chen is a student in the Master of Arts – Asia Pacific Policy Studies (MAAPPS) program.
Links:
- Original version of the ECFA text and appendices (in Chinese)
- Information on ECFA from the Bureau of Foreign Trade (Taiwan) (in Chinese)
- Debate between President Ma Ying-jeou and opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen where the ECFA is framed as a security threat
- Part 1 of 14 on Video
- The ECFA being passed unanimously as the result of the opposition party walking out of the ruling-party dominated legislature, prior to the final vote
Related Memos:
- Our other Memos about Taiwan.