Memo #282
By Nathan Allen – n.allen [at] alumni.ubc.ca
Indonesian voters will face significantly fewer choices in the upcoming 2014 legislative election. Where 38 parties competed in 2009, only 12 will appear on the ballot in 2014. For 16% of the electorate, their preferred party in 2009 will no longer be an option. To put it in perspective, the first and second place parties in 2009 only earned 21% and 14% of the vote respectively. The pool of “homeless” voters is substantial and has the potential to tip the scales in 2014. Who will they support?
Looking at the 2009 results provides a few hints. First, the homeless voters were concentrated in eastern Indonesia. While only 12% of the electorate in Java are homeless, 23% of the electorate in eastern Indonesian will not find their preferred party of 2009 on the ballot. This is potentially good news for Golkar (Suharto’s former party), which has traditionally been strong in patronage rich eastern Indonesia, where citizen’s livelihoods are relatively more dependent on state spending. In fact, Golkar’s electoral vote in the east dwindled over the last three elections as prominent supports abandoned it for smaller parties requiring more modest financial contributions and political commitments. But with small parties absent in 2014, Golkar is positioned to reclaim lost territory.
Second, the largest pools of homeless voters are in Christian areas. This reflects the fact that in 2014 Christian parties found it especially difficult to meet the regional party registration requirements. In heavily Christian East Nusa Tenggara, 34% of voters are homeless. Large concentrations can also be found in North Sumatra, West Kalimantan, and Papua. These voters will be inclined to support nationalist parties which have been open to religious minorities, particularly Golkar the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
The reduction of political contenders in 2014 has created a large pool of politically unattached “homeless” voters whose support will be up for grabs. The likely beneficiaries are PDI-P and Golkar, the country’s large nationalist parties. While electoral gains will translate to a few national level seats, the consolidation of power will be significant at the sub-national level, where the minor parties have had the most power and impact. The effect of such results on governance will be worth monitoring in the upcoming years.
About the Author:
Nathan Allen recently completed his PhD in political science at the University of British Columbia and is now a Post-Graduate Research Fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. He examines the Indonesian party system in the forthcoming issue of Pacific Affairs.
Links:
- Nathan Allen, “From Patronage Machine to Partisan Melee: Subnational Corruption and the Evolution of the Indonesian Party System,” Pacific Affairs 87:2 (June 2014)
- Vikram Nehru and Nadia Bulkin, “How Indonesia’s 2014 Elections Will Work,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2014
- Dirk Tomsa, “Still the Natural Government Party? Challenges and Opportunities for Golkar Ahead of the 2014 Election,” South East Asia Research 20:4 (2014): 491-509
- Andreas Ufen, “From Aliran to Dealignment: Political Parties in post-Suharto Indonesia,” South East Asia Research 16:1 (2008): 5-41
Related Memos:
See our other memos on Indonesia.
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