Memo #80
Nelson Rand – nelsonrand [at] hotmail.com
Since the end of April 2011, fighting between the Thai and Cambodian armies along their disputed border killed 18 people, injured over 120, and displaced nearly 100,000 villagers. Since hostilities began in July 2008, border clashes have now left at least 28 dead and some 150 injured. The conflict is centred around three ancient temples built by Khmer kings nearly a thousand years ago. But most analysts contend that territory is not the driving concern, rather it is fuelled by domestic politics in both countries.
The two countries have been locked in a diplomatic row, which started after Cambodia’s application to have the Preah Vihear temple listed as a UNESCO world heritage site was accepted in 2008 – a decision that infuriated Thailand. Tensions worsened in November 2009 when Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen appointed exiled former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra as a special economic advisor. What began as a border dispute has presented both governments the opportunity to bolster nationalist sentiment and gain support by rallying their citizens against an external threat.
This is especially true for Thailand, beset by serious political and social divisions. With critical elections set for July 2011, many analysts, such as Pavin Chachavalpongpun, say the Thai military is flexing its muscles to ensure it maintains its sizeable stake in politics. Others say the fighting could even be an attempt by the Thai military to delay the polls, believing the opposition Puea Thai Party could come out the winner. The party is closely linked to Thaksin, who was ousted by the military during a coup in 2006.
For Cambodia’s part, Hun Sen has used the conflict to stoke nationalist sentiment, which has always been a way to boost his popularity. Less obvious, perhaps, is how this conflict could be laying the foundations for a political dynasty. One of the key commanders overseeing border operations is Hun Sen’s eldest son, major-general Hun Manet. Manet has risen rapidly through the ranks of the army – assurance, some say, that the army will remain loyal to Hun Sen. But Manet’s presence in the army could have implications for the future, as preparation for him to one day take over for his father.
It is unlikely the conflict will escalate into full-scale war. But since both countries appear content to use the conflict to forward their own political agendas, sporadic fighting will likely continue.
About the Author:
Nelson Rand – Canadian journalist based in Bangkok who has been covering insurgencies and political protests in Thailand for the past 6 years.
Links:
- Analysis – As election looms, Thai generals go on offensive, Reuters, April 2011
- Analysis: Cambodian PM reaps gains from Thai border battles, Reuters, April 2011
- Asian Conflicts Reports, Council for Asian Transnational Threat Research, March 2011
- Domestic issues fuel Thai-Cambodian spats, Asia Times, April 2011
- Thai-Cambodian Border Clash Largely a Manufactured Conflict, World Politics Review, May 2011
Other Memos by or featuring Nelson Rand:
- Thailand’s Red-Shirts: One Year Later (Memo #60)
- Video interview: Nelson Rand, a Canadian journalist wounded in Bangkok analyzes the Thailand conflict (Memo #14)
Related Memos:
- Our other Memos about Thailand